A Boutique Hotel for the Örleu Program

The Task

Prepare two documents for the bank and Damu Fund application: a financial model (FEM) and a business plan. The documents had to withstand credit committee scrutiny and confirm eligibility under the Örleu program criteria.

What We Did

• Market review of Almaty's 3★ segment: tourist flow (+22.5% in two years), 3★ hotel occupancy at 73.8%, ADR set below competitors, a price advantage
• An 8-year financial model: monthly forecast, occupancy ramp-up to 80%, seasonality, P&L, cash flow, staffing plan, debt service schedule, NPV/IRR
• A deal structure with a safety margin: DSCR for every loan year, low-LTV collateral, founders' cash contribution, grace period, and cash buffer
• Örleu program fit analysis: checked against criteria for loan amount, term, LTV, down payment, and jobs; subsidy savings calculated
• Business plan in bank format: deal summary, renovation budget benchmarked against the market range, collateral, debt coverage, risk register with mitigation

Result

• A business plan for the bank

  A ready investment case for submission to the bank and the Damu Fund: market, budget, collateral, risks.

• A financial model with transparent assumptions

  A monthly 8-year forecast: P&L, cash flow, DSCR by year, NPV of +₸19.5M, IRR of 19.5%.

• A safety margin on debt service

  An average DSCR of 1.64x over the loan term, reinforced by deal structure and a risk register with mitigation.

• Confirmed fit with Örleu

  Rate of 12.6% vs the market rate of 19%. Subsidy savings of roughly ₸50M over the loan term.